Somalia continues to face widespread poverty, a lack of economic infrastructure, reliance
on external aid, and ongoing security threats from al-Shabaab.
The outcomes of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS)’s drive for electoral reforms
to transition from clan-based indirect elections to universal suffrage remain uncertain.
Key electoral issues remain unresolved, such as the timing of the elections, inclusivity,
and the Federal Member States (FMS) roles. The Somali National Army (SNA) continues
to struggle in containing al-Shabaab and the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) offshoot
operating in Somalia.

As the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) evolves into the African
Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), the capacity of Somali
forces to manage internal security independently will face a critical test. Adding to these
challenges are the fragility and displacement caused by conflict, recurrent humanitarian
crises, climate-related shocks, and limited institutional capacity.

What is at stake for Somalia in 2025, and what trends merit attention? Addressing this
dual question involves four key considerations: the country’s political landscape,
including FGS-FMS electoral tensions; the security transition; conflict and displacement;
and quality of external support. Together, these factors offer a framework for assessing
Somalia’s prospects in the year ahead, particularly as the nation navigates complex
electoral reforms, persistent centre-periphery disputes, and persistent security threats.